The market is worried about the supply of nickel, and the price of nickel is still high. [institutional Review]

Spot aspect

SMM1# Electrolytic Nickel reported 178600-180000 yuan / ton on Feb.18. There was a slight downgrade in the spot market this morning. Jinchuan nickel rose 2000-2200 yuan / ton to 2203 contract, with an average price of 2100 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from yesterday. Russian nickel spot water rose 1600-1900 yuan / ton to 2203 contract, with an average price of 1,750 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from yesterday.

As for nickel beans, the rising water range of nickel beans is now 2500-2800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2650 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from yesterday; there are some inquiries downstream, but there are few transactions due to the high price. The price of high nickel iron remained stable at 1505 yuan / nickel, while the price of low nickel iron was stable at 4950 yuan / ton.

"check the spot price of SMM nickel products

Market news

(1) on 15 February, the Government of New Caledonia announced at a joint press conference the issuance of an export license for SLN of up to 2 million tons of nickel ore, increasing the annual Eramet export quota from 4 million tons to 6 million tons. Eramet said it was honored by this decision, which also provided a framework for the "rescue plan" in the SLN mining segment.

(2) on February 16th and 17th, the No. 25 and No. 26 boilers in Anjia project in area G of Qingshan weda bay Park were respectively delivered electricity, and iron production is expected to be put into operation by the end of February. The project plans to build a 4*60000kvaRKEF nickel-iron production line, and so far three have been put into production. However, due to the problem of power supply in weda bay Park, the short-term power load of the new production line is on the low side. It is expected that around April, with the commissioning of the new power plant, the output will gradually increase. According to the survey of SMM, there are 33 production lines in, weda bay Park so far.

(3) on February 18, local time, US President Joe Biden formally signed the provisional appropriation bill passed by the US Senate on the evening of the 17th, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue to operate until March 11, temporarily avoiding the dilemma of the shutdown of the federal government. The U.S. Senate voted to pass the provisional appropriation bill on February 17, and the House of Representatives also voted to pass the bill. As the Democratic and Republican parties are temporarily unable to agree on the federal budget for fiscal year 2022, the US Congress can only temporarily pass a temporary appropriation bill to maintain the operation of the federal government.

(4) according to the Ukrainian civilian armed forces local time on the 19th, more than 6500 people have been evacuated from Donetsk to Russia, while more than 25000 people from the Luhansk region have entered Russia. Starting from the 19th, trains will also be used to transport residents of eastern Ukraine, and 10 trains are expected to arrive in Russia on the same day.

Summary and prospect

(1) macroscopically, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain, crude oil prices rise and fall sharply, macro sentiment tends to be cautious, and Russian nickel supply accounts for 10% of the world, the market is still worried that nickel supply will be affected. In addition, the better-than-expected US inflation data, market expectations of the Fed to raise interest rates in March 50bp continue to rise, the Fed minutes show that the process of raising interest rates and shrinking the table is likely to accelerate. Supported by supply concerns and low inventory, short-term high nickel prices may increase volatility.

(2) fundamentals, 1) LME nickel 3-month transfer fee is at an all-time high, global nickel inventories remain eliminated, and nickel prices are still supported; 2) some ferronickel plants resume production, but monthly output is still affected, ferronickel prices continue to rise; 3) stainless steel spot prices are higher, post-holiday market or a large number of goods, but Foxi inventory growth is not as expected, follow-up attention to stainless steel inventory and consumption.

Overall, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain, and the Russian nickel supply accounts for 10% of the world, the market is still worried about the nickel supply, the macro mood tends to be cautious, and the follow-up focus is on the impact of tighter overseas liquidity on non-ferrous metals. After the festival, the domestic pure nickel resources increased, but the global nickel inventory is still at a historical low. At present, the downstream demand has warmed up. Under the support of low inventory, the nickel price may remain high for a short time, and the fluctuation rate is expected to increase. At the same time, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Castle Peak high matte project.

In operation, it is recommended to do more callback, pay attention to the opportunity of Shanghai nickel rolling under the pattern of low warehouse order, and pay attention to risk control.

Focus on

Downstream consumption, Indonesian ferronickel production, high matte project progress, macro news.